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Mar-23-2008

Visa´s Performance and Expectations

Visa (V) had a successful beginning, and currently has a value of $64,35 per share. In only two days from its IPO initial value ($44), it has gain 46,25%. Not bad, right? Basically, the high demand for this
company´s stock had a big impact on this gain.
Nevertheless, many analysts believe that the first days of the week from 24-28 March will be hard for financial companies (Visa included), since profit taking is
expected and it will generate a rebound from last week´s rally.


My prediction for a first trading day close for V of $50 to $60 was correct, closing at $56,75.
Personally, I share that opinion; Wall Street will make a
rebound, but by the end of the week I expect Visa to continue its rally, finishing on the $70-$72 range.
Bear Stearn´s new deal with JP-Morgan will generate a one or two day rally, but then a big fall we occur.

Thursday could be a good day to buy Visa, at a $64-$65 value, since I believe that initial claims could decrease (8:30 ET on 27th March will go public this economic indicator) and this rally could go on for two
weeks. Mid April will be vital for the market, since banks and investment companies as Citigroup, CapitalOne, Wachovia and others are expected to announce its earnings for the trimester ended on March.
 

Until then, my opinion is that markets will continue to raise, but on the long term I continue to believe that recession is a fact and will affect the market, reaching a new year low. Fundamentals haven´t change and
banks are still with credit trouble, and April could bring this fact to the surface again, replacing the current euphoria for fear.

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